The year 2025 turned out to be a serious challenge for business, especially in St. Petersburg. Official statistics have not yet been published, but it is already clear: almost no one has increased foreign currency revenue. Ruble revenue for some market players may show growth of around 5–10%, but this is rather an exception. The overall trend is a decline in the comparable range. A significant share of consulting firms will end the year with a loss of 10–15%.
Where has the market lost volume?
Entire segments of legal practice have fallen into deep stagnation. The real estate and M&A markets have seen the most noticeable contraction. The number of mergers and acquisitions has decreased dramatically.
Assets that previously belonged to foreign owners, after nationalization, have effectively been removed from circulation. If in 2023–2024 there were attempts to resell such assets, today owners prefer to “stay out of sight.” The risk of losing assets outweighs potential gain.
Remaining transactions involving non-residents are also under pressure. Since early 2025, approvals from the governmental commission are either not issued or are extremely rare. Transaction flows have shrunk to a minimum.
Where demand remains — and even grows
The main source of demand today is state regulation and enforcement activity. Data protection, tax claims, and customs authority disputes are experiencing a renaissance. However, a key question arises: how solvent is this demand?
Large and mid-sized businesses are still willing to invest in legal protection. Small businesses, however, increasingly are not — entrepreneurs often choose to shut down companies rather than engage in long and costly disputes with the state.
Another growth area is intellectual property and legal support for artificial intelligence projects. However, this is largely a domain of large-scale, high-margin projects. Mid-sized businesses simply do not have the budgets for such matters. Nevertheless, this is where the most lucrative mandates are currently concentrated.
What comes next?
The year 2026 will not bring recovery. The market will face stagnation with mixed dynamics: some players will lose 10–15%, some will maintain positions, and a few will show moderate growth. The key survival factor will not be the breadth of practice, but the depth of expertise and the ability to convert regulatory changes into concrete client cases.
Managing Director, Partner, TEAM Consulting Group
Viktor Mironov
Material prepared and published in Delovoy Petersburg (Business Petersburg)